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Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase? |
According to the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), there are approximately 50 earthquakes a day and about 20,000 earthquakes a year worldwide. In fact, there's a hundred percent chance there will be an earthquake today . . . somewhere. The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that several million earthquakes occur in the world each year. However, many go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small magnitudes.
According to long-term records (since about 1900), the USGS expects about 17 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in any given year throughout the world.
The USGS continues to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications.
In 1931, there were about 350 seismograph stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed the U.S. and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.
Professor Clifford Thurber, a UW-Madison seismologist, says, "The number of earthquakes has remained relatively constant when you're talking a timescale of 100 years. Break it into decades, the numbers go in cycles. There were more large earthquakes in the 2000's than 1990's, that's absolutely true. Is that normal? I'd say it's in the realm of ordinary variation."
In recent years there seems to be a perception that catastrophic natural disasters are on rise. As noted above related to earthquakes, this is not the case and the reality is that there is no increase. However, given the bombardment of immediate information from the news media, we are certainly all more aware of recent catastrophic events worldwide. Also, as population centers shift into new areas, once relatively harmless natural disasters now affect millions of people, property and infrastructure.
Once we are exposed to this mass of information we are more tuned in to similar events. And when you create an association with such an event; such as a place you visited, the tremendous loss of life or a touching video of a person affected by the event, you will notice the news of such disasters more readily. So after a major earthquake like Haiti, we tend to focus on all the earthquake reports via TV, the newspaper and the Internet. This also explains how many can completely miss the news of historic flooding in the Midwest and northeastern US simply because they are subconsciously not listening.
However, in terms of earthquakes, some places may be safer to live than others in the United States. From 1975 to 1995 there were only four states that didn't have any earthquakes - Florida, Iowa, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Information for this article was obtained from the USGS website. For additional information about the frequency of earthquakes visit the USGS website. |
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